Probabilities, not opinions
The probability markets attach to major events — central bank decisions, recession, elections, crypto, energy — read from prediction markets where real money is at stake, and how it moved over the week.
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Central banks
Economy
Crypto
Commentary never puts a number on its conviction
“The Fed could cut rates”: with what odds? Analysis speaks in adjectives, and you never know whether a scenario is likely or marginal.
The view of those with money on it
Seven macro themes
Central banks, economy, financial markets, crypto, geopolitics, elections, energy.
This week’s move
A probability going from 40 to 70% says more than today’s figure.
Tied to macro
The same probabilities feed the Macro drivers and the interest-rate page.
No sports, no entertainment
Only markets that matter to a macro investor are kept.
What it changes in practice
Probabilities come from prediction markets, with their source. They reflect bets, not certainty, and are not advice.